Week 7 is littered with feisty underdogs and Jason Logan is sifting through the pups to find the ones with bite. In this week's NFL Underdogs, an underrated 5-1 squad is highlighted along with a beaten-down Niners team ready for revenge.
I feel like Paula Abdul dancing with a cartoon cat through six weeks of NFL picks and predictions. I take two steps forward. I take two steps back.
Don’t get that reference? Eh, Google it and blame me later for having “Opposites Attract” stuck in your head.
I followed a 3-0 ATS Week 5 with a winless 0-3 ATS Week 6 for my NFL Underdogs bets, leaving me with an 8-10 ATS record heading into my Week 7 NFL bets. My up-and-down start to 2022 reflects the outcomes of many NFL teams so far this season.
It’s been tough for anyone to string wins together, outside of a handful of clubs. Teams coming off a win are just 38-39 SU and 37-38-2 ATS and teams coming off a loss are posting a 40-37 SU count with a 37-36-4 ATS outcome.
However, make those teams an underdog, and clubs coming off a victory are 21-16-2 ATS (57%) and underdogs coming off a loss are 22-14-1 ATS (61%). Overall, point spread pups are 52-38-3 ATS (57.5%), which makes me feel even worse for being in the red with my underdog wagers.
But if those roller-coaster results hold up, we should be in for a windfall in NFL Week 7. Here are my top NFL underdog bets.
NFL picks against the spread for Week 7
- Giants +3.5
- Colts +3
- 49ers +3
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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New York Giants (+3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars pick
Maybe I’m late to the party on the Giants, with the cushy part of the schedule over and New York bound for regression on the road in Week 7. Or maybe… just maybe, the Giants are a good team.
Wild take, I know.
If we peel the sticker off the helmet, we find a 5-1 SU team with an offense that ranks out among the likes of Kansas City and Buffalo in EPA per play the past three games. This mystery team is doing the little things right, like converting on third down (48.72% L3 weeks) and cashing in when inside the red zone (63.64% L3 weeks).
We also find a defense that just handed two former MVP quarterbacks one of their worst games of the season so far, and now faces a second-year passer that’s coming undone.
Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence looked to be turning a corner in the first three outings of 2022 but has since looked “Urban bad” in the last three games. Lawrence ranks out as the fourth-worst quarterback in EPA + CPOE (completion percentage over expectation) and this Wink Martindale defense could pile on those problems Sunday.
Lawrence faces an aggressive blitz-happy scheme, generating pressure on almost 25% of dropbacks and bringing extra pass rushes on 42.5% of those snaps. Lawrence has not played well under pressure, completing only 40.4% of attempts and averaging a mere 4.7 yards per pass under duress along with three interceptions.
Jacksonville has lost three in a row, with its defense letting up and looking foolish in last Sunday’s defeat in Indianapolis. The Colts could do nothing but pass, with the rushing corps in shambles, and the Jags still didn’t do anything to stop them. Ryan threw for 389 yards, including 22 first downs through the air.
Guess which QB ranks above all others in that advanced EPA + CPOE metric the last three weeks?
I’m not saying Daniel Jones is going to sling it like Matty Ice last week and he’ll find himself under pressure plenty, but this Giants passing game is efficient when it throws— regardless of who’s at WR. Jacksonville has also allowed the second-highest receiving yards to running backs in the league, giving up more than seven yards per reception to the position, and faces a very capable pass catcher in New York RB Saquon Barkley.
With this spread opening Giants +2.5 and moving as high as +3.5 as of this writing (with pros jumping on the Jaguars), it seems like the betting markets are waiting for the other shoe to drop for the G-Men. But measuring this matchup and the makeup of these two teams, it may not drop until Week 8.
PICK: Giants +3.5 (-120 at 888sport)
Indianapolis Colts (+3) at Tennessee Titans pick
I come from a basketball background and there’s a belief that the only way to bust out of a shooting slump is to keep on shooting the ball.
Colts quarterback Matt Ryan gave us the football flip of this philosophy in Week 6. After five weeks of wishy-washy work under center, Matty Ice was busting out of his slump by only one means: passing the ball. A lot.
Ryan threw 58 passes in the win over Jacksonville, completing 42 of those for almost 390 yards and three touchdowns. It certainly helped that Indianapolis’ rush attack was down to a third-string running back, but Ryan reminded us of his passing prowess and that performance could be the breakout Indy backers have been waiting for.
If the Colts are going to keep their momentum moving — hell, they’ve won three of the last four— this divisional matchup with Tennessee is critical.
The Titans, who beat Indy 24-17 on the road in Week 4, are coming off a bye after winning three in a row (Las Vegas, Indianapolis, Washington), despite being outgained in each of those victories. Tennessee has been edged by 35, 122, and 144 yards in those contests yet has won those games by a combined 13 points.
The Titans' defense has been rotten at defending the pass (29th in DVOA) and gave up 327 yards through the air to Ryan and the Colts in Week 3. It was Indy’s three turnovers that made the difference at the end of the day though.
With the Colts getting RBs Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines back at practice this week as well as LB Shaquille Leonard, things are on the up and up for Indianapolis.
PICK: Colts +3 (-118 at Circa Sports)
Covers NFL betting analysis
- Week 7 odds and line movement
- Super Bowl odds
- NFL MVP odds
Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers (+3) pick
The media will hype up this Super Bowl LIV rematch and the revenge spot for the 49ers, who lost that game after giving away a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter.
I’m sure that collapse still sticks in the craw of Kyle Shanahan & Co. but there’s more powering this point spread pup than payback in Week 7.
The Niners are coming off a bad loss in Atlanta last Sunday, but it was a rough sked spot (two straight road games and staying on the East Coast) and came with a number of defensive starters on the sideline. Miscues from the offense also piled on the problems.
Now, San Francisco is back in the Bay Area and the depth chart could get a boost with potential returns from standouts like Trent Williams, Nick Bosa, and Charvarius Ward.
Before the loss to the Falcons, the Niners were gaining traction with the betting public with impressive wins over the L.A. Rams and Panthers — despite those missing pieces. However, turnover troubles last Sunday are clouding what is one of the better offenses over the past three weeks, owning the 11th-highest EPA per play in that span.
That efficient playbook goes up against a Kansas City team ripe for a letdown after the much-hyped matchup with Buffalo in Week 6 and a defense that sits in the basement of most advanced defensive metrics, including 28th in DVOA at Football Outsiders.
We all know what we’re getting from Jimmy G and Shanahan at this point, but can KC actually stop it? San Francisco averages the highest yards after the catch per reception in the land (7.6 YAC) — a spot in which the Chiefs are very soft. Kansas City has allowed the third most YAC and owns 39 missed tackles (tied for fourth most)— not what you want with beefcakes like Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk running over defenders.
On the flip of this, Mahomes’ new-look offense isn’t threatening teams over the top with home run plays like it used to and has shortened this playbook, leaning more on yardage after completions as well. The Chiefs own the most total YAC in the league, picking up 6.2 per completion.
However, the Niners’ stop unit doesn’t give up many bonus gains after the catch. San Francisco has allowed the second-fewest YAC on the year — just 4.3 per reception— and boasts the fourth-best EPA per dropback allowed (-0.143) over the last three weeks.
Mahomes is a major step up in QB competition for 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans, but his mix of coverages from zone splits to Cover 4 will keep the Chiefs’ passing game guessing. The possible returns of Ward and Bosa help too, especially with a pass rush that ranks No. 2 in pressure rate yet blitzes on less than 25% of dropbacks.
Getting in Mahomes’ face with just four rushers is a key to keeping KC contained. So far in 2022, Mahomes is completing only 46.6% of passes for an average of 6.8 yards per attempt along with three INTs when under pressure.
All in all, it feels like a short-yardage grinder of a game and that’s just fine with San Fran.
PICK: 49ers +3 (-124 at Pinnacle)
Last week: 0-3 ATS -3.00 units (Risking 1 unit per play)
Season: 8-10 ATS -2.92 units (Risking 1 unit per play)
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FAQs
What are the odds on Week 7 NFL games? ›
- Colts +1.5 at Titans -1.5 to Colts +2.5 at Titans -2.5.
- Buccaneers -9.5 at Panthers +9.5 to Buccaneers -13 at Panthers +13.
- Jets +3.5 at Broncos -3.5 to Jets -2 at Broncos +2.
- Chiefs -1.5 at 49ers +1.5 to Chiefs -1 at 49ers +1.
- Seahawks +7.5 at Chargers -7.5 to Seahawks +5 at Chargers -5.
...
Past Champions.
| Year | Most Accurate |
|---|---|
| 2020 | Matt Bowen ESPN |
| 2019 | Kevin Seifert ESPN |
| 2018 | Jamey Eisenberg CBS Sports |
| 2017 | Jamey Eisenberg CBS Sports |
- FanDuel Sportsbook.
- BetMGM Sportsbook.
- Caesars Sportsbook.
- WynnBET Sportsbook.
- BetRivers Sportsbook.
- DraftKings Sportsbook.
- PointsBet Sportsbook.
- FOX Bet Sportsbook.
1. Kansas City Chiefs (+105)
What is the best bet for 7 selections? ›The 'Super Heinz' bet requires the bettor to pick 7 selections, which results in a total of 120 bets overall within this bet type. The 120 bets within a Super Heinz are as follows; 21 doubles, 35 trebles, 35 four-fold accumulators, 21 five-fold accumulators, 7 six-fold accumulators and 1 seven-fold accumulator.
What QB should I pick up Week 7? ›- Lamar Jackson, BAL (vs. CLE)
- Patrick Mahomes, KC (at SF)
- Joe Burrow, CIN (vs. ATL)
- Justin Herbert, LAC (vs. SEA)
- Kyler Murray, ARI (vs. NO)
- Tom Brady, TB (at CAR)
- Dak Prescott, DAL (vs. DET)
- Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (vs. PIT)
PredictZ is hailed by many as the best and most reliable football prediction site in the world. They provide football tips, free analysis, football form and statistics, latest results, league tables, and many more.
Which bet prediction site is the best? ›Betensured, a betting prediction service that works worldwide, is one of the best betting prediction sites in Nigeria. The site covers football events from almost every league, and each league has its own analysis. The website also provides information about upcoming football games so that you can plan accordingly.
What is the most correct prediction site? ›ACCURACY. Betagamers.net is the surest prediction site providing the most accurate football predictions in the world with average accuracy above 80%, an accuracy level that is impossible for many forecast sites on the internet to reach.
What is the easiest sports bet to win? ›Tennis is one of the easiest sports to predict. For beginners, tennis is the best sport to predict the winner as there are no draws. It can be called a game sport. Tennis occurs very seldom, which makes it challenging for the predictors.
Who is the best football gambler? ›
Billy Walters Net Worth: $200 Million
He also gets the privilege of being considered one of the most successful professional sports bettors in Las Vegas, keeping a winning streak for over 30 years.
- Follow Tipsters. A tipster is a person who is a consultant for predicting sports events. ...
- Benefit from Matched Betting. ...
- Use Analytics, Avoid Emotions. ...
- Know Betting Markets. ...
- Use Trustworthy Bookies with High Odds. ...
- Use Detailed Statistics. ...
- Track Your Bets. ...
- Conclusion.
The Chiefs are listed at the best odds to win at +650 while the Bills are right behind them +750. Behind the two are the current Super Bowl champ Rams at +1100, with the highest odds out of any team in the NFC.
Who is the best bet to win the Super Bowl? ›Our Super Bowl Pick
Our favorite pick to win the Super Bowl is the Kansas City Chiefs (+105).
Prediction: Eagles 34, Chiefs 27.
How can I bet without losing? ›- Carry out Extensive Research. ...
- Follow a trusted Tipster or Prediction Site. ...
- Avoid Overconfidence. ...
- Make use of a Handicapper. ...
- Avoid Parlays.
What is a Lucky 7? A Lucky 7 Bingo bet is named after the pattern made on the betting slip. There are 7 selections in a 3×3 grid with two squares left empty. It is made up of 1 sevenfold, 1 fivefold, 2 trebles and 9 doubles.
What table has the best odds? ›If you're willing to put in a little work, blackjack offers the best odds. I'm talking about a . 5 percent casino edge, depending on which table you're sitting at. (Meaning for every dollar you gamble, you'll lose only half a penny on average.)
Who should I pick up in fantasy football Week 7? ›- Carson Wentz, QB, Indianapolis Colts (35 percent rostered)
- Kenyan Drake, RB, Las Vegas Raiders (53 percent rostered)
- J.D. McKissic, RB, Washington Football Team (42 percent rostered)
- Sterling Shepard, WR, New York Giants (51 percent rostered)
Week 7 of the 2022 fantasy football season was highlighted by big games by Joe Burrow, Gus Edwards, Travis Etienne Jr. and Ja'Marr Chase.
Who is the best WR Week 7? ›
Tyreek Hill takes the No. 1 spot in our crew's positional rankings, with Ja'Marr Chase and Mike Evans rounding out the top three.
What is the best way to predict football matches? ›One of the best ways to predict football matches is by using data and statistics. You can use data to find patterns in how teams play. For example, you can look at how a team has performed in the past against similar opponents. You can also look at a team's home and away records.
Which app gives the best football prediction? ›The most accurate Android app for football predictions is Overlyzer. It offers powerful statistical analysis of live football games, as well as live betting tips. Overlyzer has a high accuracy rate and is the best overall app for betting on football matches.
Which football prediction site is 100%? ›Betgenuine is the best football prediction site . We are 100% consistent in giving accurate football predictions and greatly outstanding tips with highest level of accuracy among other football prediction websites. we give wide variety of football match predictions and tips to maximize your winning potentials in bets.
What is the smartest way to bet? ›- 1Know your bet's break-even rate.
- 2Shop around for the best price.
- 3Know the value of a half-point, especially in NFL betting.
- 4Avoid parlays, especially single-game parlays.
- 5Place your bets early in the week, not at the last minute.
- 6Focus on closing line value.
- An over or under bet.
- Over or under bets per team.
- Handicap victories, i.e. victories with a difference of several goals.
- Low winning odds.
- Half-time bets.
- Early or late goals.
Unibet is one of the fastest withdrawal betting sites and features multiple withdrawal methods. Withdrawals via Neteller or Skrill are usually processed within 12 hours.
Is it better to bet early or late? ›A generally accepted strategy in NFL betting is to place bets early in the week, and it's a fairly simple principle: As bettors make wagers, bookmakers adjust their lines, and those lines only become more accurate and thus harder to beat. This principle is backed up by data.
How do I win a bet every time? ›- The favourite doesn't always win. ...
- Don't just stick to one bookmaker – shop around. ...
- The fewer selections, the better. ...
- Avoid the temptation of odds-on prices. ...
- Consider the less obvious markets. ...
- Make sure you understand the markets. ...
- Don't bet with your heart. ...
- Pick your moment.
Double Chance allows betting on two outcomes of a sporting event, increasing the chances of winning. This type of bet is commonly used in football matches. It's one of the easiest and safest bets on football because it involves two possible results.
Who is the luckiest gambler ever? ›
| Archie Karas | |
|---|---|
| Nickname(s) | The Greek |
| Residence | Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S. |
| Born | Anargyros Nicholas Karabourniotis November 1, 1950 Antypata, Cephalonia, Greece |
| World Series of Poker | |
His winning streak continued, and he eventually became the world's top race bettor. In 1994, he won a $7.5 million jackpot in Keno. Besides being the richest gambler in the world, Bill Benter is also a philanthropist. He has given out large amounts of money to political groups and charities.
What is the longest casino winning streak? ›Between 1992 and 1995 Karas collected a fortune, and at its highest his net worth was more than $40 million. This three-year record-breaking streak came to be known as 'The Run' and is still believed to be the longest and biggest hot streak in gambling history.
How to read odds? ›Whereas negative (-) odds tell you what you have to bet on the favorite to win $100, positive (+) odds tell you how much you'll win for every $100 you wager on the underdog. So, a team with odds of +120 would payout $120 for every $100 wager.
Who is favored to win the Super Bowl 2024? ›The Kansas City Chiefs opened as the early sports betting favorites to win Super Bowl LVIII in February 2024. The Chiefs currently sit at +500 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $60 total), followed closely by the Buffalo Bills (+550, bet $10 to win $65 total).
Who is favored to win Chiefs or Eagles? ›Philadelphia is a 1.5-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Eagles odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 50. Before locking in any Eagles vs. Chiefs picks, make sure you see the NFL predictions and Super Bowl 2023 predictions from top SportsLine NFL expert R.J.
How much do you win if you bet 100 on Super Bowl? ›For example, you would find 8/1 on the Chiefs winning the Super Bowl. If you wanted to bet $100, you could multiply it by 8/1 to calculate your potential profit of $800.
What's the easiest way to bet on the Super Bowl? ›Moneyline Betting
Betting on the moneyline is the easiest Super Bowl bet you can make. Quite simply, you bet on which team will win the game “straight up.” You don't have to worry about margin of victory. If the team you bet on wins, you win your bet!
Yes, it's possible at least in theory, because odds on the Super Bowl change over time and at different venues.
What will the weather be like in Week 7 NFL? ›As for the Week 7 weather forecast, we should see mostly cloudy skies with highs near 65 and 4 mph winds.
What are the odds of hitting a 7 team parlay? ›
| Parlay | Odds Paid | True Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 6 team parlay bet | 45-1 | 63-1 |
| 7 team parlay bet | 90-1 | 127-1 |
| 8 team parlay bet | 180-1 | 255-1 |
| 9 team parlay bet | 360-1 | 511-1 |
- Week 6: Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans.
- Week 7: Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles.
- Week 8: Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers.
NFL regular-season ratings saw a 3% decrease from last season, which was not unexpected with "Thursday Night Football" moving from Fox and NFL Network to exclusively airing on Amazon Prime Video. The 272 regular-season games averaged 16.7 million viewers across television and digital platforms.
Which NFL team is the coldest? ›Bengals 1982, -9 degrees (wind chill -59) Based on the wind chill, this was the coldest game in league history.
What is the hottest NFL game? ›One of the hottest games on record occurred in 2003 between the Arizona Cardinals and the Green Bay Packers when the game-day temp was a scorching 102 degrees. Both extremes take a significant toll on teams as they struggle to cope with abnormal field conditions.
Is it better to straight bet or parlay? ›There's nothing wrong with placing a parlay or teaser bet every once in a while for fun. But bettors should never make parlays and teasers a daily habit or common routine. You are assuming massive risk and playing right into the sportsbooks hands. Instead, stick to flat betting.
How do you consistently win parlays? ›The best and most profitable strategy to employ with parlays is known as a correlated parlay. Another way to incorporate parlays into your strategy is to bet into weak numbers and combine them with other, stronger spreads to increase your exposure to the weak number.
How much does a $10 7 team parlay pay? ›| Number of Bets in Parlay | Fair Payout (-110 Odds) | Fair Payout on a $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|
| 5 Team Parlay | 25.36 | $253.59 |
| 6 Team Parlay | 48.41 | $484.13 |
| 7 Team Parlay | 92.42 | $924.24 |
| 8 Team Parlay | 176.45 | $1,764.46 |
Why would Bezos want to own the Commanders? The team is one of the most notable franchises in one of the most popular sports leagues in the world. The Commanders have won three Super Bowls (in 1983, 1988 and 1992) and is located in the giant Washington, DC, market.
Which NFL team plays in the smallest market? ›Among all 32 NFL teams, the Green Bay Packers are based in the smallest U.S. market, ranking 139th in the country.
Who has a bye week in week 7? ›
In Week 7 of the 2022 season, four teams will be on byes. They are the Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles.
What are the best picks for Week 6 in the NFL? ›- Record: 45-34-1 (9-7 in Week 4)
- POWER RANKINGS: Cowboys, Jets, Giants all make big jumps for Week 6.
- Pick: Bears 21, Commanders 19.
- Result: Commanders 12, Bears 7.
- Pick: 49ers 27, Falcons 24.
- Pick: Browns 26, Patriots 22.
1. Broncos vs. Jaguars 2013 Week 6 (-28)